How Cold Does It Need To Be For Lake Michigan To Freeze?

One of my favorite memories was back in 2014 when my family and I went to Holland State Park and were able to walk on a completely frozen Lake Michigan. March 8th, 2014 saw record ice coverage with 93.29% of the lake covered in ice.

Now, one year after one of the warmest winters on record that resulted in the Great Lakes starting 2024 with its lowest amount of ice coverage in over 50 years, this winter has proven to be a return to form for Michigan winters (for better or for worse). So, what weather does Michigan need to get the Lakes covered in ice again?

⬇️GRAND RAPIDS YEARLY SNOWFALL TOTALS SINCE 2000⬇️

A Whole Lot Of Cold

To the shock of no one, the more water there is, the longer it takes for the overall temperature to change. That's why sometimes you can go swimming in the lake and the water can be warmer than the air temperature, and vice versa. The lake has struggled over the past couple of years to generate much ice coverage in large part to consistently warmer temperatures, causing the water temperature to stay above freezing.

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For Lake Michigan to get more ice coverage, it will need consistently freezing temps and a lack of "wave action".  Lake Michigan is currently sitting around ~40°F. The water temperature needs to hover around 32°F for multiple days. Thankfully, we're in luck. Since the beginning of 2025, Michigan has been below-freezing every day and the state could see near-record low temps next week with surface temps below 0.

This has led to ice coverage on the Great Lakes already beginning to develop and will continue to spread as the temperatures continue to stay low. Lake Michigan is still below average for this time of year but ice production is on the rise.

How Many Times Has Lake Michigan Frozen Over?

According to Meteorologist Tom Skilling, Lake Michigan has never completely frozen dating back to the 1800s. The Lake has seen over 90% coverage 5 times:

• 1903-04
• 1976-77
• 1978-79
• 1998-99
• 2013-14

Lake Erie is the shallowest of the Great Lakes and more routinely freezes over.